The NBA regular season stretch run is causing mayhem in the standings. Teams are battling for home-court advantage in the West, as the Oklahoma City Thunder (42-18), Minnesota Timberwolves (42-19), and reigning champions Denver Nuggets (42-19) are all fighting for the top seed. In the East, the four through eight seeds are separated by just 2.5 games, with teams eager to avoid the play-in. For the next six weeks, I’ll be watching the carousel of teams in and teams out as we get closer to April 14th. For now, let’s see what teams are getting hot at the right time.
Celtics Win Streak Puts Them in Historic Territory
The Boston Celtics have ripped off 11 wins in a row. Following their 52-point victory over the Golden State Warriors, they now have the largest point differential in any eleven-game span in NBA history, at +243.
Boston also became the first team to win three regular season games by at least 50 points. Their dominance has stretched over the entire season, as they have built up an eight-game lead over the second-seed Milwaukee Bucks. They rank either first or second league-wide in offensive rating (1st), effective field goal percentage (T-1st), and true shooting percentage (2nd). The formula behind this success is their three-point shooting. The Celtics are attempting two more threes per game than any other team (42.4) and making a buck and a half more threes than any other team (16.4). If they continue to mow down teams like they did the Warriors, I would not be surprised if Jayson Tatum gets some more MVP buzz.
Nuggets Back to Form
Similar to the Celtics, the Denver Nuggets have not lost since the all-star break. A text from reigning Finals MVP Nikola Jokic to his teammates apparently sparked the team’s successful stretch, according to Kentavious Caldwell-Pope.
The Nuggets, on their six-game win streak, have the best net rating in the West, and Jokic has had a triple-double in four of them. He now has 19 on the season and is just 14 away from passing Magic Johnson in third on the all-time triple-doubles leaders. Michael Porter Jr. has been key in this stretch, averaging 22 points and nine rebounds a game. With altitude being an additional home-court advantage, and having the experience of reaping the benefits of it, I believe the Nuggets will be the one seed in the West when the regular season concludes.
Bucks and Doc Rivers Getting Along
In the time between the hiring of new head coach Doc Rivers, and their last loss before their win streak, the Bucks ranked 14th in the NBA in turnovers per game (12.8). Since their five-game win streak began, they have risen to just third in the NBA in turnovers per game (10.8). The growing pains of a new system appear to be wearing off, and the Bucks will likely hold onto the second seed because of this push. Giannis Antetokounmpo is averaging over 31 points and just under 12 rebounds per game.
Where the Bucks are really flexing their muscles is on defense. In the five-game stretch, they are best in the league in defensive rating, allowing just 101.5 points per 100 possessions. They also have the second-best offensive rating (121.4) in that span, behind only the Celtics. They have vastly improved in disallowing points off turnovers, off fastbreaks, and in the paint during the win streak. With the addition of Damian Lillard, the Bucks really just have to keep games close to have a chance. And if they are employing a top defensive unit behind him, they should be cooking by the time playoffs start. With that said, and although it is not clear to me yet, I would not be surprised to find Doc Rivers choking in the playoffs once more. It might be more exciting for Lillard at that point:
Shai’s Thunder Making Noise
Despite it technically not being a win streak, the second-youngest team in the league has won seven of their last eight games. Ironically, their only loss came at the hands of the youngest team in the league, the San Antonio Spurs. OKC is second in offensive rating and net rating, offering itself as another high-scoring offense that appears to be taking off. MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging a steady 33 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 5.5 assists in the eight-game span. The Thunder are 34-11 when he puts up at least 30 points.
The 6’6″ guard uses elite dribble moves to lull the defenders to sleep, then hits them with a lightning-fast first step and either uses his lengthy frame to finesse a finish at the rim or hit a high-release mid-range jumper. He is the perfect mismatch maker for a coach; he’s too tall for a guard defender, too quick for a wing defender, and can pass out of the double team with ease. Keep an eye on the Thunder during the home stretch, and whether or not they can hold onto the one seed. If they do, I would be remiss to not pick SGA for MVP.
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