The AL East has been arguably the strongest division in baseball over the past few seasons and is potentially looking to be another tight race in 2024. Four teams finished over .500 last season, with three of them making the postseason. As spring training is officially underway, free agents such as Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Blake Snell, and Jordan Montgomery have not been signed as of yet. There can be a team or two in this division that can use one of these players to improve their rosters.
Baltimore Orioles
Each season from 2018-2021, the Orioles had lost over 100 games. After a solid 2022 season, where they won 83 games and started to show glimpses, Baltimore took the next step in 2023 and won 101 games to finish with the No. 1 seed in the AL. However, the season didn’t end the way they wanted it to, as they were swept by the eventual World Series champion Texas Rangers in the ALDS.
This team was young and inexperienced, especially within the pitching staff, which gave up seven runs a game in the ALDS. Baltimore realized what their main issue was and they ended up making a huge splash, trading for 2021 NL Cy Young award winner Corbin Burnes.
That puts Kyle Bradish, who finished in 4 in AL Cy Young voting last season, in a more comfortable role in the rotation as the No. 2 starter. The Orioles did announce that Bradish will miss time to start the season with a sprained ulnar collateral ligament (UCL), so it’ll be interesting to see how much the 27-year-old pitches this season.
Luckily for Baltimore, Grayson Rodriguez has massive potential and showed glimpses of progression down the stretch of the season. John Means is also likely to miss the start of the season recovering from an elbow injury but if Means can stay healthy and produce innings, it can be a dangerous starting rotation.
Based on projections, Dean Kremer will more than likely hold the final spot in the rotation. Tyler Wells and Cole Irvin will see time in the rotation to start the season and can be bullpen options once Bradish and Means get healthy.
The Orioles offense was 7th in runs scored last season, but one of their main successes was their ability to win the close games, as they were 30-16 in one-run games last season.
Baltimore’s offense is led by two up-and-coming superstars; Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson. Rutschman has emerged as one of the best catchers in the league and is only going into the third year of his career, while Henderson is making a case to be a superstar-caliber player after hitting 28 home runs, driving in 82 runs, and producing an OPS of .814 and a 6.3 WAR.
There is one key guy to look out for this season, which would be Jackson Holliday, who was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2022 MLB Draft.
“We’re bringing him into camp with a chance to make the team, and he’s going to be laser-focused on making the team,” Baltimore’s GM Mike Elias said about Holliday on MLB Network Radio. “If he does make the team, we’re going to put him on the Opening Day roster.”
Even without Holliday, this offense is expected to make some noise from top to bottom.
Not having Felix Bautista, who is out recovering from Tommy John surgery, this season will definitely hurt, but the Orioles bullpen does have some solid pieces. They brought in Craig Kimbrel, who was an All-Star closer for the Phillies last year but struggled down the stretch and still have Yannier Cano who had a terrific 2023, posting a 2.11 ERA with 65 strikeouts in 72.2 innings.
Danny Coulombe and Cionel Perez will be other reliable arms that manager Brandon Hyde will be able to utilize this season.
Boston Red Sox
Since they reached the ALCS in 2021, the Red Sox have been a subpar team. For years, the stigma around Boston has been that their pitching is weak, and people have been right. Since they won the World Series in 2018, the Sox haven’t had a better ERA than 4.26, which was in 2021 and was ranked 15th in the league that year.
Aside from signing starter Lucas Giolito to a two-year, $38.5 million deal, Boston’s been quiet this offseason. They traded Chris Sale away to the Braves, shipped Alex Verdugo to their most hated rival in the Yankees, and watched Justin Turner sign with the Blue Jays.
These moves have left the Red Sox going into a rebuild, which newly hired President of Baseball Operations, Craig Breslow, will have to dig them out of. For this team to have a successful season in a tough division, the pitching staff will need to step up in 2024.
Brayan Bello did show flashes last season, which gives the pitching staff hope at the top of the rotation. Bello had a 3.04 ERA through July 5 after throwing seven strong innings against the Rangers but ended up struggling the final two months, finishing with a 4.24 ERA. Giolito, Nick Pivetta, Kutter Crawford, and Tanner Houck round out the rest of the rotation.
The lineup won’t be too much of a concern, especially if Trevor Story can get back to the player they expected him to be when they signed him to a six-year, $140 million contract before 2022. Rafael Devers is a top-five third baseman in baseball and was one of the key guys the Red Sox locked up for the long term and Masataka Yoshida had a solid rookie season after slashing .289, with 15 home runs, 72 RBI and an OPS of .783. They also have Tristan Casas, who is looking to take another step forward in 2024.
The Red Sox also traded for outfielder Tyler O’Neill in a low-risk, high-reward move to replace the loss of Alex Verdugo. O’Neill has a fantastic 2021 season with the St. Louis Cardinals hitting .286 with 34 home runs, 80 RBI, an OPS of .912, and a 6.3 WAR, however dealt with injuries and struggled at the plate during the last two seasons. If he stays on the field consistently, he will have the opportunity to show his full potential.
The bullpen outlook for Boston does have upside and possible trade deadline targets for opposing teams.
Kenley Jansen is coming off a season in which he put up a 3.63 ERA in 44.2 innings and 52 strikeouts as the closer. He obviously isn’t the same dominant closer that he once was, but can still be very effective. Chris Martin quietly had the best season of his career at age 37 last season, posting a 1.05 ERA in 51.1 innings. Josh Winckowski and Garrett Whitlock can also make solid contributions to this bullpen in 2024.
New York Yankees
After a disappointing 2023 season, the New York Yankees underwent a revamp of their roster.
One of the biggest splashes of the offseason came in early December when they traded for 25-year-old superstar outfielder Juan Soto. Trent Grisham was also involved in the Soto trade that will solidify him as the fourth outfielder and provide them with great defense. The Yankees also finalized a deal with starting pitcher Marcus Stroman to a two-year, $37 million contract and traded for Verdugo to balance out the lineup.
Aaron Judge and Soto will cause havoc for any opposing pitching staff, especially since not only do both hit for power but get on base just as much as anyone in baseball. Soto has led the league in walks since entering the league in 2018, while Judge finished the season with 37 home runs, despite missing two months.
The only thing to look out for between Soto and the Yankees is what will happen after this season. Soto is expected to become a free agent and with the high market in today’s game, expect him to be one of the highest-paid players in the history of baseball.
Speaking of long-term, Gleyber Torres is also on track to become a free agent by the end of the 2024 season, and you would have to wonder what his market would look like. Gleyber batted .273 with 25 home runs, and 68 RBI last season and will look to have the best season of his career.
The two biggest question marks with this team are health and who will have bounce-back seasons.
Can DJ LeMahieu continue the second-half resurgence he had last season and stay on the field? Could Giancarlo Stanton, who has only played in 110 games or more in three of the six seasons since becoming a Yankee, stay healthy at age 34? Will Carlos Rodon become that legit No. 2 starter that the Yankees paid him to be? Can Nestor Cortes stay healthy and get back to being a reliable starter like he was in 2022?
It will also be key for Anthony Volpe to take the next step after having a polarizing rookie season, posting a .211 average with 21 home runs, while winning a gold glove at short.
If these things happen, the Yankees can legitimately be a World Series contender. If it’s the opposite, then we may only look at the Yankees as just a playoff contender.
If the starting rotation pitches up to their potential, the Yankees could have one of the better rotations in baseball, which is led by reigning AL Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole.
The main downside for this team will be the bullpen, as they lost both Michael King and Wandy Peralta. Clay Holmes did have a solid 2023 season with a 2.86 ERA in 63 innings however, he can be very streaky at times. The Yankees do have other reliable relievers in their bullpen, but again it all comes down to health.
You may see New York active around the deadline, depending on how their pitching shakes out.
Tampa Bay Rays
It looked like the Rays were headed for a special season after the first half, however, seemingly ran into a wall in the second half. Tampa lost a lot of key players late in the season, which could affect them entering 2024.
One of them is shortstop Wander Franco, who may no longer have a future in baseball after his off-field scandal. Starting pitcher Shane McClanahan underwent Tommy John surgery in mid-August and will likely miss the entire season, while Drew Rasmussen will open the year on the injured list and isn’t expected to be back until later.
Left-handed pitcher Jeffrey Springs will also miss the start of the year and is on track to return between July and August.
The Rays have lost major players on this roster, like Tyler Glasnow and Luke Raley, however, they have been just as good, if not better, than any team in baseball over the last six or so seasons in replacing star talent, especially pitching.
Remember, this is a small market business that has a hard time spending money like the Yankees, the Dodgers, or even the Phillies. The only way they can build up their roster is through their farm system, which they have been extremely successful at doing.
The Rays still have a respectable offense with Yandy Diaz, Randy Arozarena, Isaac Paredes, Josh Lowe, and a healthy Brandon Lowe coming back.
The starting rotation is led by Zach Eflin, who is coming off the best season of his career with a 3.50 ERA and 186 strikeouts in 177.2 innings pitched. The rest of the projected rotation will be Aaron Civale, Zack Littell, Ryan Pepiot, who was a part of the Glasnow deal, and Taj Bradley. Some of these guys will need to step up if they want to some noise this season.
As for the bullpen, the Rays usually find great relievers, whether that would be via trade or through their farm system, but Pete Fairbanks and Jason Adam will serve as the main high-leverage relievers for Tampa Bay in 2024.
Toronto Blue Jays
With the young core of Vladimir Guerrero Jr, Bo Bichette, Cavan Biggio, and Alek Manoah, the Blue Jays have looked like a team that can compete for the top spot in the AL for the past few years. They haven’t been able to take that step though, and would be considered as just a borderline playoff contender.
This is an offense that has always been top-tier, placing in the top 10 in home runs and runs scored from 2020-2022, and leading the league in home runs in 2021. However, in 2023, the Blue Jays’ offense took a step back after finishing 16th in home runs and 14th in runs scored.
Matt Chapman, who came over in a trade with the Oakland Athletics before the 2022 season, is currently a pending free agent and isn’t likely to come back to Toronto after they decided to bring in Justin Turner and Isiah Kiner-Falefa.
Look for Kiner-Falefa to be Toronto’s starting third baseman this season, since he won a gold glove at that position in 2020. With that being said, Justin Turner looks to fill the DH spot. The Blue Jays will also be looking for Daulton Varsho to bounce back from a disappointing season.
The pitching staff was the team’s strength last season, as they finished fourth in team ERA. Kevin Gausman has proved to be a legit ace, and if Manoah can get back to his full potential or even half of what we have seen before, it will only make the starting rotation better.
Manoah finished the 2022 season as a top-three Cy Young candidate but followed it up with a 5.87 ERA the next year.
Toronto’s been plagued with some lineup construction challenges, as they’ve always been right-handed dominant and haven’t been able to rely on their lefties to perform at a high enough level.
One right-hander who showed massive potential was Davis Schneider, as he hit .276 with eight home runs and posted a 1.008 OPS in 116 at-bats. Schneider and Biggio will look to be in a competition for second base this spring.
With that being said, here are my predictions for the division in 2024.
- Baltimore Orioles
- New York Yankees
- Tampa Bay Rays
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Boston Red Sox
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very well written. interesting to read