Political Column: The Politics of Momentum

Let’s imagine for a moment that politics isn’t some constantly moving series of back-and-forth debates, referendums and historical analysis and treat it as a more simple analogy: sports. We do, after all, relate and understand far more about sports than politics in Washington and around the country.

Perhaps the most important portion of a basketball, football, hockey or baseball game that does not show up on a stat sheet is the shift in momentum – when an event occurs during a game that alters the direction of the rest of the game. In a realistic sense, that momentum shift is what certain politicians thrive on and others are destroyed by, not the tiny little variables of policy change and daily rhetoric that barely capture a fraction of the public’s attention.

It happened in 1994 when the then Newt Gingrich-led Republican Party won the House and Senate during President Clinton’s first term. It happened again in 2002 for the Republicans, regaining the Congressional majority. During the 2008 presidential campaign, it happened on Sept. 15, when Lehman Brothers financial firm filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy, marking the beginning of the Great Recession and swinging the election back in President Barack Obama’s favor.

It hasn’t been very long since Congress passed the Democrats’ plan on health care reform, so whether or not it will end up altering the momentum to favor the Democrat Party still remains to be seen. But if largest policy change since the mid-1960s means anything, it’s that things may continue to swing in Obama’s favor.

As of this week the President’s approval ratings have declined slightly, nothing more than what people suspected after the passage of the health care bill. However, with consumer spending, confidence and job creation and hiring climbing ever so slightly according to recent polls, those ratings do not look to significantly decrease in the short term.

If it is, in the simplest terms, a game of momentum, then this could be the dramatic shift that alters politics for the next several elections. But, just like sports, you can’t predict everything.